tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-203920672012-02-07T19:02:13.559-08:00The purpose of this blog is to examine Bainbridge Island as an example of how the global credit bubble can impact a community, which believes they are immune to these forces, due to some sense of "specialness." This blog also seeks to continue a dialogue concerning macro-economic forces as they relate to people in the Westsound region.Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comBlogger561100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-39341322376758276212011-09-03T00:21:00.000-07:002011-09-03T00:21:33.129-07:00

Q:  What significance does October 10, 2007 have to investing? A - It was the all-time high in the stock market B - It was the most bullish day in the history of the stock market C - It was the best day to sell in the history of the stock market D - It was the worst day to buy in the history of the stock market E - All of the above. For those who still believe the stock market is a discounting

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-20019178910311274782011-08-18T12:42:00.000-07:002011-08-25T11:35:27.831-07:00

That's why they call it a "trade." When you find yourself on the losing end of a "sure thing" trade, the one thing you want more than anything else is to find someone to dump it to - at full price.  The problem is if you know it, everyone else does as well.  In order for your problem not to be your problem, it must become someone else's problem. This is why we have marketing departments.  We

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-34821152138564921122011-08-15T05:00:00.000-07:002011-08-18T01:45:20.024-07:00

Own yourself. By borrowing money, you go into debt and as such you are pledging your future productivity to extinguishing that debt.  This debt almost always carries interest, which is an additional claim against your productivity.  As long as you owe your lenders, you are not free to put your excess productivity to the endeavors of your choosing - you owe it to someone else. Let's presume 

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-202005317793776642011-05-06T01:20:00.000-07:002011-05-06T10:47:25.746-07:00

I guess SEAL Team Six went directly from Bin Laden's hide-out to the commodity exchange and brought its signature lethality. If you want to know what happens when the "shoeshine boy" is in the trade, look at these charts. Silver, Nat Gas, Oil, Australian Dollar If I had a dog as ugly as those charts, I'd shave its rear and walk it backwards. This is what happens when AM radio (the modern '

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-66460454847501437622011-05-03T02:27:00.000-07:002011-05-06T10:45:09.187-07:00

"Crush Depth" is the depth that a submarine can no longer resist the ambient pressure and will catastrophically fail...and die.  It is the point of no return.  All airplanes eventually land (in some form or fashion), but not all submarines surface. The USS Dollar is approaching crush depth.  Skipper Bernanke has gone guano-insane and has finger-fouled the USS Dollar into into the abyss to avoid

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-88844441449994785242011-03-31T12:15:00.000-07:002011-04-06T01:22:14.253-07:00

Peer review:a process of self-regulation by a profession or a process of evaluation involving qualified individuals within the relevant field. Peer review methods are employed to maintain standards, improve performance and provide credibility.Today, we shall be reviewing Karl Denninger's "Four Point Plan" on how we can put this credit monster in the rear view mirror. Citations of Denninger are

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-34570589314830165232011-03-24T00:09:00.000-07:002011-03-26T12:33:37.522-07:00

I know, I know...the IER has been dormant since the Seachickens butterfingered their way out of the playoffs, and the vast and loyal readership of the Westsound's premier economic blog have been jonesing for a fix. Here is a little bit of sanity to tide all of you over until the senior fellows can unclog their inboxes and devote the time needed to keep all of us in the right frame of mind. I

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-81039002677951956182011-01-18T00:05:00.000-08:002011-01-18T21:59:20.596-08:00

Any questions? Don't blame this loss on Matt.  When one of only two guys that can catch a perfectly thrown ball gets injured on the second series, you are not going to have a good afternoon.  The Seahawk receivers must have mistaken axle grease for Lester Hayes' bootleg bottle of Stickum. The other problem is that Cutler had way too much time in the backfield to complete passes to people that

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-10999373919651134402011-01-12T15:50:00.000-08:002011-01-18T22:00:34.639-08:00

I thought it would be fun to have an entry that has nothing to do with economics, real estate, politics, Bainbridge Island twittiness, or longwinded, snarky bombasts.  This goes in the catagory of how the IER is a good fade when predictions come along, and since I have been Seahack fan since the Jim Zorn days (also a Raider fan for sanity purposes and a 49er fan by marriage), I thought the

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-56630158672083091632010-12-24T00:02:00.000-08:002010-12-24T00:06:49.695-08:00

One unfortunate feature of being an economic gadfly is the the field of economics is fraught with prediction, most of it coming from the third bend in an economist's colon.  At the Institute For Economic Reality, the convocation of macro-economic realists strives not to source its predictions in the same manner.  Even so, reality often intrudes in the most obsene fashion for those of us trying

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-72050466093909896512010-12-13T17:13:00.000-08:002010-12-24T19:09:41.319-08:00

EX NIHILIO credit is the mechanism most of the pundits confuse with "printing."  When you go to your community bank to get a loan for a new Subaru Outback AWD, complete with "Wag More, Bark Less" and "COEXIST" stickers, your banker is extending you credit.  The banker is loaning you money he borrowed from someone else at a lower rate (depositors).  You take the money you borrowed from American

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1971221063358286432010-12-12T00:49:00.000-08:002010-12-12T14:06:44.725-08:00

As the vast and loyal readership of Clearcut Bainbridge already know, the Institute For Economic Reality has been a pretty good fade for calendar year 2010.  The IER predicted a rising US dollar and falling "everything else."  This wasn't lost on the senior fellow level of the IER, and I had a short, but prosaic posting where I would be eating large helpings of corvus brachyrhynchos.  The mighty

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-11416721274642608762010-08-04T12:28:00.000-07:002010-08-04T12:28:22.301-07:00

Roman Bacchanalia (early incarnation of the modern day "Rager") This entry is the first in a what will hopefully be a multi-installment feature on Clearcut Bainbridge. The Institute For Economic Reality will be exploring and discussing with its vast readership how we can extracate our nation from the current economic clamity of our own creation. This is what you will NOT be hearing from our

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-92133995372630426252010-05-20T17:07:00.000-07:002010-05-21T23:37:38.685-07:00

In last quarter's posing (am I so lazy, I'm down to posting every 13 weeks?), The IER layed out a road map on how the financial beating we will take will present itself. The short version: Dollar rises and causes, -commodities to get crushed. -then equities (that's stocks for you RE agents) get positively smashed -then debt (bonds) get horrifically sold, which takes interest rates up -finally

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-40438205321584733582010-02-16T22:44:00.000-08:002010-02-17T11:07:44.591-08:00

Housing, Gold, Stocks, Interest Rates, Currency - An Intermediate Outlook. Last month, the Institute For Economic Reality held a discussion on why the current fascination with commodities, especially gold, is a game that is about to turn. Since then, we have seen the stock market peak on January 19th, and then take a turn for the worse. While this was knowable, it is very difficult to

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-16087806370870138752010-01-06T22:37:00.000-08:002010-01-07T10:42:12.861-08:00

Today's Kitsap Sun had a great article by Rachel Pritchett discussing the direction of Kitsap's troublesome home resale market. It was surprising, not because Pritchett did some fine journalism (as that is her baseline), but that the real estate professionals seemed to be telegraphing an ominous development in real estate.While December’s numbers were encouraging, it’s too soon to say the market

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-9730716141352296172009-11-14T22:31:00.000-08:002009-11-16T23:17:35.569-08:00

This is a quick update on the insanity that passes for financial advice in our popular culture.The Institute for Economic Reality, Kitsap County’s original economic think tank, has recently relocated its campus to Western Poulsbo, due to the previous landlord expecting me to stay in a house on a month-to-month basis, only to leave if she ever found an economic illiterate from California to bail

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-89376376341869133792009-08-31T16:03:00.000-07:002009-11-14T22:31:22.710-08:00

The IER attended the Inslee Town Hall at NKHS on Saturday, and was amazed at the widespread economic idiocy that passes for governance.

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-42406191882008181372009-08-23T22:14:00.000-07:002009-08-24T10:52:30.827-07:00

I have good news and bad news.The good news is that foreclosure rates on subprime ARM mortgages fell last quarter. Wall Street is rejoicing with a 50% rocket-shot in the S&P since the March lows and everyone believes that the "all clear" has been sounded with the window-lickers on CNBC yammering about "green shoots" nonstop since that time. Yes, the biggest financial calamity in world history

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-19625309678926031342009-05-27T23:04:00.000-07:002009-05-28T00:40:17.328-07:00

What happens when you are holding a trainload of ALT-A mortgage paper, and 40% (+/-) of the mortgages in those securities are 60 days delinquent? (Think every Money Market fund in the USA)You sell.What happens when you are holding 10year US Treasury notes and the government keeps "stimulating" itself at a $trillion per pop, and tax revenues are only 50% of total expenditures? (Think every

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-52918581821638821852008-11-10T13:27:00.001-08:002008-11-10T13:53:47.062-08:00

Just a quick note for anyone who still trusts their government/media to tell them the truth.When you hear of the "official" unemployment rate put out by the government, you are only getting half the truth (actually, it's 55%, but who is counting?). The government wants you to believe that our unemployment rate is only 6.5%, up from 4.8% when compared to last October.The truth is the American

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-23780447803559732612008-11-07T09:12:00.000-08:002008-11-08T13:43:44.952-08:00

Now that Bainbridge Islanders can't engage in their two favorite activities (endless yammering about home appreciation and wallpapering over the entire island with OBAMA '08 propaganda), we are going to have to brace for the next annoying, self-serving, short-sighted, hip-n-trendy corpus of mindless twaddle that they will lord over all of us in the name of neo-enlightenment.

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-52700458736125673532008-10-22T23:51:00.000-07:002009-04-18T11:52:25.080-07:00

Q: How do you know when a banker is lying?A: He publishes his quarterly financial statements.The Institute For Economic Reality, a think tank based in Poulsbo, Washington, has been watching the "credit crisis" unfold for a few years, and has concluded that bankers are dumber and more dishonest than airline executives - a feat that was previously thought to be unassailable.Many have asked me if

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-2746566797076424912008-10-07T18:28:00.000-07:002008-12-11T12:52:24.542-08:00

Because I have been too preoccupied with the financial self-immolation of our nation, I have not been able to continue the unending string of high-quality postings that Clearcut Bainbridge readers have come to expect. So, in lieu of doing actual work, I thought I would just warm up some leftovers and throw them out for general consumption.Hopefully, this keeps me in the good graces of all the

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-8267595982398706992008-10-04T21:11:00.000-07:002009-02-04T12:18:22.763-08:00

On Friday, October 3, 2008, America was sold out to foreign bankers by the United States House of Representatives in a 263-171 vote.There were few bright spots in this disaster, but among the brightest for people in North Kitsap, Bainbridge, Shoreline, Kirkland and Edmonds was that our Congressional Representative, Jay Inslee, kept the faith with his district and voted "NO" on both occasions. As

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-57920236219469975552008-10-02T10:46:00.000-07:002008-10-02T11:49:26.873-07:00

Yesterday evening, the US Senate passed this abomination of a bill, called a "rescue package" by a 74-25 margin. Among the provisions includes a law that allows the Treasury Dept to buy foreign debt from foreign banks and stick it on the back of the US taxpayer. Both Cantwell's and Murray's office were well aware of this provision, as I, and many others, had faxed and called. Senior staffers at

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-50179789107391094402008-09-30T22:25:00.000-07:002008-10-01T11:31:23.202-07:00

This is getting to be worse than a bad drive-in horror movie. The villain not only refuses to die, but comes back in an even more hideous form. As if $700B for American financial toxic waste (yes, that's what it is called) wasn't enough, we now are going to pay for as much Chinese, Japanese, English, and Arabian toxic waste as they can shovel at us.Don't believe me? Here is a copy of the bill

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-7054738190841935652008-09-29T11:54:00.000-07:002009-02-04T12:16:55.565-08:00

Here is a letter that I just faxed to Congressman Inslee's office. I would encourage all in the First District to do likewise.For those of you in the Sixth District, you may want to get out your pitchforks and torches.What Inslee did today took guts - LOTS OF GUTS! When the biggest, most powerful lobbying force in world history pushed all its chips to the center of the table and said "all-in,"

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-85937037176859022082008-09-28T21:12:00.000-07:002008-09-28T21:32:13.157-07:00

One theory that I have held for several months is that the US banking system has been insolvent since the Dec07/Jan08 time period. Since then, the US Federal Reserve has been keeping these rancid banks on life support by loaning good money (US Treasury instruments) for bad money (various flavors of Mortgage Backed Securities). Back in the spring of this year, I noticed that the "burn rate" of the

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-56115721114901739982008-09-26T22:36:00.000-07:002008-09-26T22:43:05.893-07:00

Thanks for taking the time to stop by. The purpose of this is to discuss the rise, fall and consequences of the property bubble, or more accurately how the underlying credit bubble caused the property bubble and how it will play out in the coming years.My basic thesis is that the US economy was underpinned on the false premise that "real estate always goes up," and since that is economically and

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-21636876855409994712008-09-23T15:32:00.000-07:002008-09-27T16:38:26.464-07:00

The following is a letter that I have given to Inslee, Cantwell, and Murray. I have also put this to every member of the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.If you agree with this, please visit:www.fedupusa.orgPlease take this letter, put it under your name and send it to your representitives. I have been working with Inslee's staff in DC to get this into the hands

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-33384691576071036352008-09-21T17:51:00.001-07:002008-09-26T13:17:13.446-07:00

The following is a letter that I have sent to Senators Murray and Cantwell, as well as Congressman Inslee. Please feel free to copy this and send it to anyone you believe will benefit from the content.Enabling Act of 2008Dear Member of Congress:You are being asked to assign unprecedented powers to an unelected, and unaccountable former Wall Street banker, under the guise of bringing stability to

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-90853349125398581052008-08-10T23:03:00.000-07:002008-09-26T13:26:38.387-07:00

At the Institute For Economic Reality, we are always trying to help people out of their self-imposed, colo-cranial economic impairments. Judging by the volume of chatter on how the real estate market is suddenly "affordable," it would appear that we have our work cut out for us.When home prices have gone up 150-200% in a decade, a 15% rollback isn't exactly a buying opportunity. Keep in mind that

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-83324845692310087042008-07-29T20:35:00.000-07:002008-09-27T12:55:19.198-07:00

You know it's bad when the "Open House" signs outnumber the "Obama '08" signs by 2:1.This is Bainbridge Island, Washington - the "Martha's Vineyard of the West" (yes, they really say that, and it is embarassing)- a place where smug, liberal dreamers come and bask in everlasting home appreciation.One problem...homes are not appreciating. It turns out that Bainbridge Island is in the same credit

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-67139670213802481152008-04-30T09:28:00.000-07:002008-09-25T17:40:19.047-07:00

Yesterday, there was a great exchange on the Seattle PI Real Estate Professional blog that was debating if 2008 was a good time to buy. It was your standard REIC tripe about how today represented a screaming buy which was countered by a handful of economic realists (Bubble Bloggers - BBs). Let it suffice to say that the BBs kicked the crap out of the REIC and the REIC scuttled the thread.After

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-27399810930050730582008-03-16T22:50:00.000-07:002008-03-16T23:06:44.194-07:00

The Institute For Economic Reality has moved the CRASH-CON rating to CC-1, which is the first time since the late January stock market scare.Ernst Stavro Bloviator, Senior Fellow at the IER, issued the following statement:The CRASH-CON rating is now moved to CC-1, and will not be moved back until significant improvement in the financial health of the US economy is apparent. Markets may rally on

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-79062346356428004112008-02-01T13:19:00.000-08:002008-02-01T22:21:18.984-08:00

DripDripDripEgan-Jones downgraded Ambac/MBIA to junk today.DripDripDripPressure mounting on S&P, Moody's, and FitchDripDripDripNeed to raise $30B to stay AAA for each company. There are 7 companies.DripDripDripEgan-Jones was first to identify Enron and Worldcom as problem children.DripDripDripEgan-Jones is paid by investors. Moodys/S&P/Fitch are paid by issuers.DripDripDripYou can bet the

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-53991871927429500702008-01-30T19:52:00.001-08:002008-02-01T22:28:19.760-08:00

Sources close to the situation indicate the Institute For Economic Reality is preparing to issue a CRASH-CON 1 rating.This letter has the potential to start the chain-reaction of financial implosion in the United States.Ernst Stavro Bloviator was asked how people should prepare for the coming carnage and what would be a safe investment."Short the phonebook. It's too late to sell your overpriced

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-27854555078041932772008-01-22T08:47:00.000-08:002008-01-30T14:18:19.171-08:00

The Institute For Economic Reality has cancelled its CRASH-CON 1 rating after the US financial markets stabilized when the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds Target 75bp to quell the abject panic in the US markets.Ernst Stavro Bloviator, Senior Fellow at the IER, issued the following statement:"Today was a contest to see who would panic loudest, and the Federal Reserve won. Either the

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-6235669711241742062008-01-21T21:39:00.000-08:002008-01-21T22:02:39.903-08:00

Poulsbo (IER)- The Institute For Economic Reality, a one-man think-tank, based in Poulsbo, Washington, has upgraded the Crash-Con rating system to CRASH-CON 1, citing worldwide stock market plunges over the King Holiday in the United States.People would be well advised to prepare for major swings in market averages, and the potential for a short-lived "Bear Market Rally" that should last until

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-34306382606275793372008-01-17T22:30:00.000-08:002008-01-17T23:33:57.573-08:00

Poulsbo (EB) - The Institute for Economic Reality has raised its CRASH-CON rating from CRASH-CON 2 to CRASH-CON 2 - LEVEL Bravo. The IER has been tracking the rapid and relentless deterioration of the financial network of the United States, and has concluded that the next level of awareness must be set.The IER issued the upgrade from CC-2 to CC-2B, which is a heightened state of CC-2, but not

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-88094174137877153152008-01-12T20:43:00.000-08:002008-09-25T18:00:04.812-07:00

Well, the eventuality of Countrywide finding the end of its rope finally came. For those who are surprised by this, I would like to warn you that a large bright light will appear on the Eastern horizon in the early morning. Don't worry; it is supposed to happen. Seriously, this was as predictable as the sunrise.Earlier this week, Countrywide was rumored to be preparing for bankruptcy. Naturally,

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-5739476806713240332007-07-17T15:43:00.001-07:002007-07-17T16:01:34.315-07:00

Poulsbo (EB) - The Institute for Economic Reality has raised its CRASH-CON rating from CRASH-CON 3 to CRASH-CON 2.The IER has been tracking the secondary market for mortgage backed securities, specifically collateralized debt obligations (CDO) and how they are funded by the large New York money center corporations.Today, Bear Stearns Cos. of New York, finally came clean and told the world how

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-15008724704282533852007-07-15T14:25:00.000-07:002007-07-15T14:30:39.999-07:00

Poulsbo - Due to the impending death of the "mark-to-model" concept in valuing mortgage backed securities (MBS), the Institute For Economic Reality will likely issue a CrashCon 2 setting sometime on Monday July 16.Further details to follow. All interested parties are advised to pay close attention to Bear Stearns hedge funds.Ernst Stavro Bloviator,Senior Fellow - Institute For Economic Reality

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-6932750259313123362007-06-12T22:33:00.000-07:002008-09-25T18:06:03.303-07:00

Last Saturday, Steven Gardner of the Kitsap Sun, reported that Kitsap home sellers are coping with declining demand for their homes. This could have been a long overdue article on how economic reality applies to everyone, regardless of how special they may believe they are. Unfortunately, Gardner didn't present any skeptical analysis of what his "experts" were telling him, or give any real

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-28993603113205125122007-02-23T09:44:00.000-08:002007-02-23T16:28:48.535-08:00

Poulsbo (EB) - The Institute for Economic Reality, a one man think tank based in Poulsbo, Washington, has just upgraded its economic alert status. On Friday, February 23, 2007, at 0745 PST, the IER raised the alert level to CRASH-CON 3, and advised all interested parties to prepare for further deterioration of the national and local real estate markets.Previously, the IER had been sitting on a

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-27017526492483443772007-01-28T21:58:00.000-08:002008-09-25T18:13:45.778-07:00

Yesterday, I was fumbling through the My Documents file in my computer. It is amazing what a trip down memory lane your My Docs file can be. I stumbled upon this posting that I wrote in early '05, for a now-defunct housing bubble blog. I thought is summed up the real estate market pretty well, and captures what life was like at the top of the bubble.Enjoy, and take the opportunity to mouth-off at

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1162017799039147162006-10-27T22:53:00.000-07:002008-09-25T18:20:38.836-07:00

POULSBO-(ESB) A dramatic development in the ongoing struggle to crack the cipher used by the Real Estate Industrial Complex (REIC), known as FLEECE (Freaking Liars Endangering Economic Certitude for Everyone), was achieved by the Poulsbo based Institute for Economic Reality.After risking his life, health, and most of his Friday evening, Dr. Eleua von Bloviator discovered a translation algorithm

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1155138863969302452006-08-09T08:38:00.001-07:002006-08-09T08:54:24.030-07:00

Sorry for the late update, but here are the numbers for June '06 compared to June '05.Average price of a Bainbridge Island home is up 6% Y-O-Y ($558,661 from $525,395).Median price of a Bainbridge Island home is down 1% Y-O-Y ($481,000 from $485,000).86 homes were sold in 6/06 compared to 50 sold in 6/05, so sales volume is up.I don't think there is much to make of this data, other than when

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1150129703612447322006-06-12T08:49:00.000-07:002006-06-12T09:34:30.396-07:00

The West Sound home sales for May are out and, as I predicted in last month's report, Bainbridge Island home prices continue to slide.Average home prices dropped 13% Y/O/Y ($548,941 from $630,306), and median home prices tanked 16% Y/O/Y ($467,500 from $559,000). This sample is based upon 38 sales in the month of 5/06.Kitsap County, as a whole, was up 9% on average and 17% on the median.The data

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1147970995675648572006-05-18T09:36:00.000-07:002006-05-18T09:49:55.693-07:00

I'm trying to get the data from the internet, but until then, the Kitsap Sun reports that Bainbridge Island real estate has started to slip.When you compare April 2006 to April 2005, you get the following:Number of homes sold has fallen by 28% (41 vs 57)Average price of a home has risen by 3% ($695,699 vs $672,729)Median home price has fallen by 2% ($587,000 vs $600,000)Now, this isn't exactly a

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1146696231367617782006-05-03T15:35:00.000-07:002006-05-03T15:45:47.553-07:00

April 30, 2006 Bainbridge Island Each day, Jason Sovick drives from his Manette home in Bremerton to Bainbridge High School to teach math. In his ninth year of teaching, the 33-year-old gets a daily math lesson of his own.He earns $48,000 a year — good, but not good enough to buy on Bainbridge."I’ve never not lived in a community that I’ve taught in," said the former Bremerton High School teacher

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1144771902046007592006-04-11T09:07:00.000-07:002008-09-25T18:30:44.428-07:00

What Do Today’s Home Buyers Have in Common With Lotto Players?Neither are very good at math. ---------------------------------------------------------RRRIINNNGGGGG.“OK, class! Let’s be seated. We have a lot to cover today.”“Jenny, could you put the cell phone down?”“Don! Sit down. No, I don’t care that you have 4 tickets for Van Halen that you want to unload – this is MATH 231 – Math for Real

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1137012283797483152006-01-11T12:22:00.000-08:002008-09-25T18:36:43.778-07:00

Q: How do you know how much a Bainbridge Island house is worth?A: The owner will tell you.I keep hearing about how real estate will "only" lose 10% - 15% in the coming "correction." This is in conflict with my predictions of a 50% to 80% drop in prices in the more bubbly areas of the nation. Perhaps the best way to look at this is by studying the underlying mathmatics at work in purchasing

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1136184086370838532006-01-01T21:47:00.000-08:002006-01-02T00:20:24.730-08:00

The point of this blog is to deflate the stuffy, provincial, self-congratulatory mystique that permeates Bainbridge Island.Bainbridge Island was, once upon a time, a nice place to live. It was a community with its own identity in the Westsound region. Then, the 1980s came along - and the Californians - LOTS OF CALIFORNIANS.Prices escalated due to the importation of gobs of home equity money from

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-1136156579255391912006-01-01T15:01:00.000-08:002006-01-02T00:02:25.696-08:00

Michelle Malkin · July 10, 2004 09:32 AMMy old hometown of Seattle--the Berkeley of the Pacific Northwest--just can't stop showing its contempt for America.Take a look at this disgraceful incident on Bainbridge Island, a few miles west of Seattle proper (and the future home of Hollywood liberals Brad Pitt and Jennifer Anniston).One of the participants in Bainbridge Island's annual Independence

Eleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com5